Let’s be honest, we’ve probably all heard enough doom and gloom to last for many years. We can read about it in every paper (that still exists) and hear it daily on every news channel. What we need to know, though, is what should we look for to know that we are coming out of the economic hard times?
In a recent presentation to the membership of ADS, Dan Kerwin, Chief Financial Officer from Bank of America discussed 10 indicators of an improving economy. These indicators are easy things to watch for, they are common sense indicators, and we're offering an easy to reference page of these indicators with weekly updates.
If you'd like to read the article "Recognizing the Path to Economic Recovery" discussing these indicators, please click here.
Last Updated: February 6, 2012
-- Download Bank of America / Merril Lynch's Capital Market Outlook - 01.09.12 (PDF)
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Other Quotes of Note
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Crude Oil:
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97.84
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--
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 from last week
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Euro / USD:
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1.3086
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--
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 from last week
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USD / JPY:
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76.71
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--
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 from last week
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Indicator 10
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2011 YTD
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2010 YTD
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Current Trend
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Last Trend
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Movie Ticket Sales
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1,221,723,752
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1,280,703,323
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-- Look for sustained upward trend
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Indicator 9
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Credit Card Incentives
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Review at http://www.creditcard.com.
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-- Look for reduced willingness to restructure debt, lower payoffs or waive fees.
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Indicator 8
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This Week
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Last Week
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Current Trend
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Last Trend
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Cardboard / Packaging
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$66.00
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$66.02
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1 week
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3 weeks 
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-- Look for increasing stock price of cardboard and packaging (stock price of RKT - RockTenn Company who acquired Smurfit-Stone Container Corp - SSCC - May 27, 2011).
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Indicator 7
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This Week
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Last Week
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Current Trend
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Last Trend
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Pasta Sales
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--
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--
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--
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--
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-- Look for the slowing of pasta sales. 08.09.10 - AIPC was acquired by Ralcorp
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Indicator 6
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This Week
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Last Week
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Current Trend
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Last Trend
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Interest Rate Spreads
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(1.50)
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(1.62)
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5 weeks
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1 week 
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-- Look for spread decrease towards 2%.
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This Week
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Last Week
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Current Trend
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Last Trend
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TED Spread
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44.70
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51.11
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3 weeks
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1 week
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-- Look for spread at approximately 40.
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This Week
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Last Week
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Current Trend
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Last Trend
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T-Bills (Three Month)
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0.076
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0.041
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3 weeks
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1 week
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-- Look for yield increase above 0.75.
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Indicator 5
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This Month
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Last Month
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Current Trend
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Last Trend
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Retail Sales (Dec)
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0.1% |
0.4% |
1 month
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1 month
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-- Look for monthly trend increase. Next released February 14 for January
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This Week
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Last Week
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Current Trend
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Last Trend
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Walmart
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$62.03
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$61.01
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3 weeks
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2 weeks
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-- Look for decreasing growth / stock decline (WMT).
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This Week
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Last Week
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Current Trend
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Last Trend
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McDonald's
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$100.01
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$101.75
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1 week
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1 week
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-- Look for decreasing growth / stock decline (MCD).
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Indicator 4
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This Month
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Last Month
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Current Trend
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Last Trend
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Car Sales (Dec)
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913,287
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1,243,965
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1 month
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1 month
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-- Look for monthly stabilization.
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Indicator 3
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This Month
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Last Month
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Current Trend
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Last Trend
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Temp Jobs (000's) (Jan)
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2,268.9
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2,505.3
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2 months
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4 months
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-- Look for increase in demand. Released monthly, end of first or second week.
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Indicator 2
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This Month
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Last Month
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Current Trend
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Last Trend
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Weekly Hours (Jan)
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34.5
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34.5
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1 month
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1 month
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-- Look for increase. Released monthly, end of first or second week.
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Indicator 1
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This Month
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Last Month
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Current Trend
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Last Trend
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Home Sales (As of 1/18)
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25
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21
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4 months
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1 month
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-- Look for Market Index at or above 20.
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