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Economic RecoveryEconomic Recovery

Let’s be honest, we’ve probably all heard enough doom and gloom to last for many years. We can read about it in every paper (that still exists) and hear it daily on every news channel. What we need to know, though, is what should we look for to know that we are coming out of the economic hard times? 

In a recent presentation to the membership of ADS, a nationally known lending institution discussed 10 indicators of an improving economy.  These indicators are easy things to watch for, they are common sense indicators, and we're offering an easy to reference page of these indicators with weekly updates.

If you'd like to read the article "Recognizing the Path to Economic Recovery" discussing these indicators, please click here.

Last Updated: March 31, 2014

  Quotes of Note..
  Crude Oil: $101.67
-- Negative Trend from last week
  Euro / USD: 1.3747 -- Positive Trend from last week
  USD / JPY: 102.86 -- Positive Trend from last week

Indicator 10 2012 2011 Current Trend Last Trend
Movie Ticket Sales 1,360,201,511 1,281,841,110 Positive Trend  Positive Trend 
-- Look for sustained upward trend
         
Indicator 9        
Credit Card Incentives Review at http://www.creditcard.com.
-- Look for reduced willingness to restructure debt, lower payoffs or waive fees.
         
Indicator 8 This Week Last Week Current Trend Last Trend
Cardboard / Packaging $102.74
$104.63
2 weeks Negative Trend 5 weeks Positive Trend
-- Look for increasing stock price of cardboard and packaging (stock price of RKT - RockTenn Company who acquired Smurfit-Stone Container Corp - SSCC - May 27, 2011).
         
Indicator 7 This Week Last Week Current Trend Last Trend
Pasta Sales -- -- -- --
-- Look for the slowing of pasta sales. 08.09.10 - AIPC was acquired by Ralcorp
         
Indicator 6 This Week Last Week Current Trend Last Trend
Interest Rate Spreads (0.37) (0.39) 1 week Positive Trend 1 week Negative Trend
-- Look for spread increase towards 2%.
         
  This Week Last Week Current Trend Last Trend
TED Spread 19.34 17.28
1 week Positive Trend 2 weeks Negative Trend
-- Look for spread at approximately 40.
         
  This Week Last Week Current Trend Last Trend
T-Bills (Three Month) 0.036 0.049 1 week Negative Trend 1 week   Positive Trend
-- Look for yield increase above 0.75.
         
Indicator 5 This Month Last Month Current Trend Last Trend
Retail Sales (February) 0.3% (0.6)% 1 month Positive Trend 2 months Negative Trend
-- Look for monthly trend increase. Next released April 14 for March.
         
  This Week Last Week Current Trend Last Trend
Walmart $76.01
$76.10 1 week Positive Trend 1 week Negative Trend
-- Look for decreasing growth / stock decline (WMT).
         
  This Week Last Week Current Trend Last Trend
McDonald's $97.24
$95.47 1 week Negative Trend 1 week Positive Trend
-- Look for decreasing growth / stock decline (MCD).
         
Indicator 4 This Month Last Month Current Trend Last Trend
Car Sales (February) 1,193,872 1,012,582 1 month Positive Trend 1 month Negative Trend
-- Look for monthly stabilization.
         
Indicator 3 This Month Last Month Current Trend Last Trend
Temp Jobs (000's) (Feb) 2,685.5 2,6650.5 1 month Positive Trend 1 month Negative Trend
-- Look for increase in demand. Released monthly, end of first or second week.
         
Indicator 2 This Month Last Month Current Trend Last Trend
Weekly Hours (Feb) 34.2 34.3
1 month Negative Trend 1 month Unchanged Trend
-- Look for increase. Released monthly, end of first or second week.
         
Indicator 1 This Month Last Month Current Trend Last Trend
Home Sales (as of 3/17) 47 46 1 month Positive Trend 2 months Negative Trend
-- Look for Market Index at or above 20.

 

 

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