Signs of Economic Recovery

Let’s be honest, we’ve probably all heard enough doom and gloom to last for many years. We can read about it in every paper (that still exists) and hear it daily on every news channel. What we need to know, though, is what should we look for to know that we are coming out of the economic hard times? 

In a recent presentation to the membership of ADS, Dan Kerwin, Chief Financial Officer from Bank of America discussed 10 indicators of an improving economy.  These indicators are easy things to watch for, they are common sense indicators, and we're offering an easy to reference page of these indicators with weekly updates.

If you'd like to read the article "Recognizing the Path to Economic Recovery" discussing these indicators, please click here.

Last Updated: March 8, 2010

Indicator 10	2010 YTD	2009 YTD	Current Trend	Last Trend
Movie Ticket Sales	239,780,453	241,545,172	1 week	1 week
-- Look for sustained upward trend.
Indicator 9
Credit Card Incentives	Review at http://www.creditcard.com.
-- Look for reduced willingness to restructure debt, lower payoffs or waive fees.
Indicator 8	This Week	Last Week	Current Trend	Last Trend
Cardboard / Packaging	$0.21	$0.19	3 weeks	5 weeks
-- Look for increasing stock price of cardboard and packaging (stock price of SSCC).
Indicator 7	This Week	Last Week	Current Trend	Last Trend
Pasta Sales	$39.14	$38.80	1 week	1 week
-- Look for the slowing of pasta sales (stock price of AIPC).
Indicator 6	This Week	Last Week	Current Trend	Last Trend
Interest Rate Spreads	(0.79)	(0.85)	3 weeks	5 weeks
-- Look for spread decrease towards 2%.
	This Week	Last Week	Current Trend	Last Trend
TED Spread	10.92	13.71	3 weeks	1 week
-- Look for spread at approximately 40.
	This Week	Last Week	Current Trend	Last Trend
T-Bills (Three Month)	0.147	0.117	6 weeks	1 week
-- Look for yield increase above 0.75.
Indicator 5	Last Month	Prev Month	Current Trend	Last Trend
Retail Sales (Monthly)	0.5%	-0.1%	1 month	1 month
-- Look for monthly trend increase. Next released March 12 for February.
	This Week	Last Week	Current Trend	Last Trend
Walmart	$54.14	$54.07	3 weeks	1 week
-- Look for decreasing growth / stock decline (WMT).
	This Week	Last Week	Current Trend	Last Trend
McDonald's	$63.67	$63.85	2 weeks	3 weeks
-- Look for decreasing growth / stock decline (MCD).
Indicator 4	This Month	Last Month	Current Trend	Last Trend
Car Sales (January)	701,000	1,013,968	1 month	1 month
-- Look for monthly stabilization.
Indicator 3	This Month	Last Month	Current Trend	Last Trend
Temp Jobs (000's) (Feb)	1,875.5	1,842.0	1 month	1 month
-- Look for increase in demand. Released monthly, end of first or second week.
Indicator 2	This Month	Last Month	Current Trend	Last Trend
Weekly Hours (January)	33.8	33.9	1 month	2 months
-- Look for increase. Released monthly, end of first or second week.
Indicator 1	This Month	Last Month	Current Trend	Last Trend
Home Sales (February)	17	15	1 month	2 months
-- Look for Market Index at or above 20.